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Should You React to Rising Oil Prices?

The price of oil has fluctuated widely over the past few years, soaring to record or near-record highs one month, then receding to more manageable levels the next. Predictions are for oil prices to remain high and creep higher in the near future. One OPEC official has even warned that the price per barrel could top $80 during the next two years, albeit temporarily.¹Rising Oil Prices - Annuity Rates, Annuities, Annuity Quotes and Fixed Annuities

When oil prices rise, drivers feel it in their pocketbooks — but that's merely the beginning of how oil prices affect the economy. Oil is priced into the cost of nearly every product and service available in the United States. It plays a role in the manufacture and distribution of everything from paper towels to computer parts. As a result, most companies in business today are affected by fluctuating oil prices.

Wall Street keeps a close eye on oil prices. Should you?

Less Toil for Oil
Rising oil prices may seem like bad news, but there is also some good news to report.

bulletThe U.S. economy makes more efficient use of oil today than ever before. The amount of oil and gas needed to produce a dollar of economic growth dropped by 55 percent between 1973 and 2003.² This helps the economy better withstand the type of oil shocks that caused recessions in the past.
bulletWhen adjusted for inflation, today's oil prices are much lower than during the price peaks of the 1970s and 1980s. For example, a barrel of oil priced in 2005 dollars would have topped $92 a barrel in 1980.³
bulletThe country now spends about 7 percent of gross domestic product on energy-related expenditures, compared with 14 percent in 1981.4

Even if the energy sector is not part of your portfolio, the price of oil can affect your other holdings. Any decision to adjust your portfolio in response to rising oil prices should be based on your long-term financial strategy.

1) AFP, March 3, 2005
2–4) The Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2005

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